The dawn of the new millennium provided the right opportunity to us at the Centre for Policy Research to reflec back on the achievements and failures after independence, and also to look forward to assess where the country possibly would be by 2025, given the inherent constraints.
This book is the product of such an endeavour and is an attempt at unraveling the future contours of the country's social, economic and political stability.
It is not an attempt at trend analysis, nor is it crystal gazing. It reflects the perceptions of the best minds on respective subject areas who took a hard look at the unfolding scenarios. In essence, it encapsulates almost a life's expertise of the chapter writers.
Looking at the future is fraught with imponderables and risk. An element of uncertainty is natural. However, when the best minds are at work, one can be reasonably sure of the broad contours.
Indian and global policy makers and students of social, economic and political should find the book useful.
6th August 2004
US$ 50
R.K. Sinha belonged to the Indian Administrative Service. He held many important assignments during his career and retired as Secretary to Government of India in the Ministry of Industry. Thereafter, he was appointed as Member, Public Enterprises Selection Board. He is deeply interested in economics and public-policy. He has been on the Boards of many companies as well as on the Boards of Governors of IIMs at Kolkata, Ahmedabad and Kozhikode. Mr. Sinha is currently Visiting Professor at the Centre for Policy Research
Foreword
Acknowledgements
List oTables
Introduction
R.K. Sinha
Social Stability ; Economic Stability ; Political Stability
Demography
P.N. Mari Bhat
Projection Assumptions; Projection Results for All-India; Demo-graphic Bonus: When and Where?; Urbanisation; Conclusion
Education
R. V. V. Ayyar and Suman Sachdeva
Elementary Education; Adult Literacy; Secondary Education; Higher Education; Vocational Education; Technical Education; Allocation and Expenditure on Education; Policies and Programmes; National Policy on Education; Policy Framework; A Critique ; Optimal Requirement versus Realistic Scenario
Health Care
R. Srinivasan
Key Linkages in Health; Forecasting in Health Sector; Available Health Forecasts; Future of State Provided Health Care; Key Achievements in Health; Components Influencing Health Care; Unfinished Burden of Communicable Diseases; Maternal and Perinatal Deaths; Child Health and. Nutrition; Unfinished Agenda-Non Communicable Diseases and Injuries; Health Infrastructure in the Public Sector; Health Financing Issues; Health Perceptions and Plural Systems; Impact of Reforms and Disparities; Emerging Scenario; Health Indicators; Socio Economic Indicators; Demographic Indicators
External Security
K. Subrahmanyam
The Nuclear Factor; The Neighbours; Terrorism and Proxy War; India and International Status Quo; The Threat Within; The China Factor; Security Management
Internal Secnrity
V.K Nayar
South Asia Ill; Socio-political Milieu; Trans-border Migration; Electoral Politics; The China Factor; The Pakistan Factor; Drug Trafficking; Jammu and Kashmir; Northeast; Extremism; War against Global Terrorism; Scenario-2025
Likely Levels of Violence
Vijay Karan
A Map of Violence in India
Urbanisation
K.c. Sivaramakrishnan and B.N. Singh
Urbanisation Trends; Spatial Manifestation of Urban Growth; Impact of Urbanisation; Urban Housing; Likely Areas of Tension and Conflict; Structures of Governance; Future Scenario; Private Sector Participation; Conflicts
Macro Economic Projections
B.B. Bhattacharya and Sabyasachi Kar
Growth in the Last Three Decades; The Tenth Plan Targets; Determinants of Economic Growth; Sources of Growth in the Indian Economy; A Macro-Model for the Indian Economy; 'Business As Usual' Forecasts for the Tenth Plan Period; Alternative Scenario Forecasts for the Tenth Plan Period; Implications for Growth Oriented Policies; Conclusion
Agriculture
LP. Abrol
Agriculture Sub-sectors; Horticulture; Animal Husbandry and Fisheries; Sustainability Concerns; Changing Land-use and Future of Agriculture; Agriculture in the Changing Global Scenario; Extension Strategies; Technological Needs and Future Agriculture
Industry
Subeer Gokarn
Trends and Discontinuities; The Dynamics of Age Distribution; Implications for the Pattern ofIndustrial Activity; Trade; technology; Cross-Country Comparisons; Structural and Policy constraints and Recent Performance
External Trade Sector
Charan D. Wadhwa
Focus Areas; The Country Coverage; The Coverage of Regional ading Blocs (RTBs); Building Alternative Scenarios; Some uor Global Economic and Financial Developments; Highlights of World Scan Model for Global Projections; Trends and Projections for Global Trade and India's Exports and Imports; Methodology of Scenario Building for Projections; Trends in the Commodity Composition of India's Trade and Projections; Trends in India's Commodity Exports; Projections; Trends in India's Commodity Imports; Projections for India's Commodity Imports; Trends and Projections in India's Direction ofTrade; Formulation of Strategic Trade Policy for India up to 2025
Infrastructure Services
S. Sundar and Kaushik Deb
Infrastructure Sectors; Infrastructure Investments in India; Energy Sectors; Policy Trends; Demand Projections for 2025; Scenario Analysis; Policy Trends; Demand Projections; Scenario Analysis; Transport; Telecommunications; Investments Required
Technology
P.V. lndiresan
Issues; Importance of Technology; The East-Asian Model; Culture as an Impedance to Technology Development; Technical Education; Science and Technology Entrepreneur Parks; Motivating Scientists; Managing Technology; India's Technology Prospects for Year 2025; Fundamental Limits to Prediction ; Expected Economic Scenario in 2025; The Technology Situation; Two Scenarios; Technology Policy Statement; Technology Status in Year ; Objectives for Technology Policy; Vision for Technology Policy; Action Points for Realizing the Vision
Environment
R.K. Pachauri, Shaleen Singhal and Harpreet Singh Kandra
Growing Environmental Concerns: Compulsions of Economic Development; Projections for Integrated air Pollution Loads: BAD Scenario; Water ; Projections for Water Requirements-BAU Scenario; Projections for Water Pollution Loads - BAD Scenario; Solid Waste Management; Projections Related to Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) - BAD Scenario; Strategies and Future Directions; Alternative Scenario-Air Quality; Strategies for Water Rcsource Management and Controlling Water Pollution; Strategies for Solid Waste Management; Managing Industrial Waste; Strategies for Mitigating Land Degradation; Strategies for Preserving Biodiversity; Policies for Successful Environmental Management
Regional Disparities
N.J. Kurian
Historical Trends; Recent Trends; Demographic and Social Characteristics; Income and Property; Resource Transfer from the Centre to the States; Pattern of Private Investment; Intra- State Disparities; Profile of Regional Disparities for Different Growth Scenarios; Impact on Political, Social and Economic Stability; Policy Initiatives for Balanced Regional Growth
Employment
Shaiilendra Sharma
Factors in the Long Term; Age Structure of Population; Characteristics of Labour Force; Structure of Economy; Patterns of Labour Migration; Labour Force Participation Rates by Sex and Age, 1983 to 1999-00; Profile of Persons having Some Marketable Skill by Type of Skill Prosessed-1993-94; Proportion Vocationally Trained Among the Youth in Labour Force-International Comparison; Output, Employment & Productivity of Organised, Unorganised and Public Sector
Nature of Political Power
Kuldeep Mathur
The Congress Party and its Decline; The Democratic Upsurge; Planning for Economic Development; Indian Bureaucracy and Administrative Reform; Parliament and its Diminished Role; The Resurgence of Non-Governmental Organisations; The Emerging Scenario
Likely Political Coalitions
Mahesh Rangarajan
The Early Legacy; The Search for a Dominant Partner; Coalitions:
The Price of Stability; The Challenges Ahead; Future Scenarios
Political Parties
Sudha Pai
Parties in the Period of Confrontation; Parties in a Period of Moderation
Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
R.K. Sinha
Index
Contributors